Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 2.794583 2.992660 3.205531 3.452676 3.733477 4.044738 4.418880
2025-02-23 2.499501 2.763389 3.063143 3.433456 3.885373 4.428344 5.145449
2025-03-02 2.305925 2.602983 2.953089 3.404637 3.985043 4.726792 5.784846
2025-03-09 2.162539 2.479702 2.864186 3.377168 4.065023 4.991456 6.407581
2025-03-16 2.057172 2.390038 2.803300 3.371122 4.161818 5.279828 7.107982
2025-03-23 1.989638 2.340194 2.785365 3.414685 4.324582 5.677325 8.057369
2025-03-30 1.895931 2.249264 2.705180 3.363014 4.340831 5.851058 8.668000
2025-04-06 1.812625 2.166296 2.628944 3.308506 4.343754 5.999244 9.263317
2025-04-13 1.724905 2.072564 2.531954 3.215737 4.276930 6.020067 9.613019
2025-04-20 1.689174 2.046158 2.525140 3.252771 4.415271 6.408773 10.834705
2025-04-27 1.665949 2.034952 2.537981 3.318735 4.605702 6.920797 12.531017
2025-05-04 1.642853 2.022329 2.547351 3.378998 4.791980 7.458564 14.554584
2025-05-11 1.594080 1.972519 2.501371 3.350833 4.824852 7.703966 15.931290
2025-05-18 1.550748 1.928583 2.461750 3.329947 4.868500 7.981177 17.585640
2025-05-25 1.508814 1.884832 2.420060 3.302412 4.896369 8.228889 19.321545
2025-06-01 1.470152 1.844213 2.381001 3.276297 4.923683 8.480741 21.288631
2025-06-08 1.439179 1.813465 2.355305 3.270550 4.989177 8.837672 24.067242
2025-06-15 1.421644 1.801482 2.357480 3.311949 5.152046 9.478031 29.113049
2025-06-22 1.383743 1.758217 2.309306 3.262843 5.125249 9.613224 31.573792
2025-06-29 1.347259 1.715955 2.261111 3.211012 5.088091 9.714343 34.045786
2025-07-06 1.304229 1.662841 2.194160 3.122734 4.966922 9.556919 34.499861
2025-07-13 1.291093 1.653868 2.196412 3.157985 5.113544 10.215917 43.049366
2025-07-20 1.284483 1.654327 2.213451 3.220741 5.327812 11.154812 58.899800